The Fed Was Right.

I know this won’t be popular with everyone, but here we go...

While the current administration has done a great job painting Jerome Powell and the Fed as incompetent, reckless, or just plain dumb (take your pick), the data continues to say otherwise.

The truth is, the Fed’s actually done a really solid job over the past couple of years—and today’s CPI numbers back that up again.

Over the last several months, people have been screaming for rate cuts. “Inflation is under control!” “We need relief!” “The Fed is being too hawkish!”

But Powell held the line. He pointed to things like tariff uncertainty and said cutting now would be premature.

And guess what? He was right.

June inflation data just came in:

• Monthly CPI was 0.3%

• Annual CPI bumped up to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May

• Core CPI also ticked up a bit

Put differently: if we run at 0.3% monthly, we’re looking at close to 4% annual inflation—well above the Fed’s 2% target.

So imagine if they had cut rates in April or May. Inflation would likely be spiking more right now, and we’d be talking about being behind the curve again.

Instead, we’ve had two straight years of:

• Strong jobs data

• Reasonable inflation

• No recession

• A soft landing, while the rest of the world flirts with stagflation or downturns

It’s honestly impressive.

Yes, Powell’s job isn’t getting any easier. Trade policy is all over the place and politics are wild. But given what they’ve been handed, the Fed has managed to navigate through chaos and keep the U.S. economy moving forward.

Not perfect. Not always popular. But so far, still the right call.